Ciatrick Fason
RB, Florida · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #112 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 18 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2006 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2006.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #68 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #112: teams let him slide 44 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 207 lbs: faster than 33% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 50 att, 161 yds, 5 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 19 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2006 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 207 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #68 overall (#7 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 109 | Marion Barber III | redraft #42 |
| 110 | Brandon Jacobs | redraft #48 |
| 111 | Elton Brown | redraft #128 |
| 113 | David Stewart | redraft #26 |
| 114 | Jerome Mathis | redraft #151 |
| 115 | Marviel Underwood | redraft #179 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.