Manti Te'o
LB, Notre Dame · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #38 (SDG)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 62 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2020 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#38).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 9% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 62 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 20 |
| Defense | 212 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.13 s |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#2 LB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 35 | Zach Ertz | redraft #15 |
| 36 | Darius Slay | redraft #8 |
| 37 | Giovani Bernard | redraft #29 |
| 39 | Geno Smith | redraft #16 |
| 40 | Tank Carradine | redraft #139 |
| 41 | Robert Woods | redraft #13 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.