Giovani Bernard
RB, North Carolina · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #37 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #93 (#6 at his position); he went #37, 56 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 50% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 135 of ~162 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2022 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 135 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 42 |
| Rushing | 937 att, 3,783 yds, 22 TD |
| Receiving | 367 rec, 2,989 yds, 14 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 28" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #93 overall (#6 RB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 34 | Justin Hunter | redraft #123 |
| 35 | Zach Ertz | redraft #15 |
| 36 | Darius Slay | redraft #8 |
| 38 | Manti Te'o | redraft #77 |
| 39 | Geno Smith | redraft #16 |
| 40 | Tank Carradine | redraft #139 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.