Geno Smith
QB, West Virginia · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #39 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #28 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#39). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
West Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 218 lbs: faster than 88% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 115 of ~213 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~54%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 115 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 57 |
| Passing | 2145/3280, 23,504 yds, 131 TD, 90 INT |
| Rushing | 377 att, 1,645 yds, 12 TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 11 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 218 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #28 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 36 | Darius Slay | redraft #8 |
| 37 | Giovani Bernard | redraft #29 |
| 38 | Manti Te'o | redraft #77 |
| 40 | Tank Carradine | redraft #139 |
| 41 | Robert Woods | redraft #13 |
| 42 | Menelik Watson | redraft #125 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.