Zach Ertz
TE, Stanford · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #35 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 184 of ~213 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~86%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#35). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.76 40-yard dash at 249 lbs: faster than 39% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 184 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 57 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 4 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 828 rec, 8,614 yds, 57 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 249 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#2 TE) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 32 | Matt Elam | redraft #109 |
| 33 | Johnathan Cyprien | redraft #63 |
| 34 | Justin Hunter | redraft #123 |
| 36 | Darius Slay | redraft #8 |
| 37 | Giovani Bernard | redraft #29 |
| 38 | Manti Te'o | redraft #77 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.