Jason Hill
WR, Washington St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #76 (SFO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 54 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2012 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #68 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#76).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Washington St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at 204 lbs: faster than 95% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 54 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 5 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 78 rec, 1,043 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 13 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 204 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.32 s |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.22 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #68 overall (#10 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 73 | Jacoby Jones | redraft #53 |
| 74 | Yamon Figurs | redraft #169 |
| 75 | Laurent Robinson | redraft #86 |
| 77 | Matt Spaeth | redraft #166 |
| 78 | James Jones | redraft #30 |
| 79 | Mike Sims-Walker | redraft #83 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.