James Jones
WR, San Jose St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #78 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 136 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2015 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #203 (#25 at his position); he went #78, 125 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Jose St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 207 lbs: faster than 22% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 136 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 46 |
| Receiving | 433 rec, 5,861 yds, 51 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 207 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #203 overall (#25 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 75 | Laurent Robinson | redraft #86 |
| 76 | Jason Hill | redraft #123 |
| 77 | Matt Spaeth | redraft #166 |
| 79 | Mike Sims-Walker | redraft #83 |
| 80 | Paul Williams | redraft #215 |
| 81 | Jay Alford | redraft #148 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.