Mike Sims-Walker
WR, Central Florida · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #79 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #110 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#79).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Central Florida: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.35 40-yard dash at 209 lbs: faster than 89% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2011 (~55%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 44 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Receiving | 134 rec, 1,798 yds, 14 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 209 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.35 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.92 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #110 overall (#14 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 76 | Jason Hill | redraft #123 |
| 77 | Matt Spaeth | redraft #166 |
| 78 | James Jones | redraft #30 |
| 80 | Paul Williams | redraft #215 |
| 81 | Jay Alford | redraft #148 |
| 82 | Tank Tyler | redraft #108 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.