Jacoby Jones
WR, Lane · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 128 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2015 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #86 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#73). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Lane: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 37% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 128 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| Rushing | 19 att, 62 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 203 rec, 2,733 yds, 14 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #86 overall (#12 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 70 | Ryan Harris | redraft #45 |
| 71 | Lorenzo Booker | redraft #153 |
| 72 | Marcus McCauley | redraft #150 |
| 74 | Yamon Figurs | redraft #169 |
| 75 | Laurent Robinson | redraft #86 |
| 76 | Jason Hill | redraft #123 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.