Denzel Ward
CB, Ohio St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #4 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at 183 lbs: faster than 97% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 109 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~82%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 116 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 52.2 |
| Defense | 308 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 19 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 183 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.32 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 136" |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 8.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#1 CB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 1 | Baker Mayfield | redraft #6 |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | redraft #8 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | redraft #19 |
| 5 | Bradley Chubb | redraft #31 |
| 6 | Quenton Nelson | redraft #5 |
| 7 | Josh Allen | redraft #1 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.