Sam Darnold
QB, USC · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #3 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 36% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 99 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~74%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 105 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 51.3 |
| Passing | 1856/2982, 21,464 yds, 130 TD, 89 INT |
| Rushing | 318 att, 1,102 yds, 14 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.85 s |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 1 | Baker Mayfield | redraft #6 |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | redraft #8 |
| 4 | Denzel Ward | redraft #18 |
| 5 | Bradley Chubb | redraft #31 |
| 6 | Quenton Nelson | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.