Baker Mayfield
QB, Oklahoma · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 122 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 126 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 80 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 81.7 |
| Passing | 2561/4034, 29,140 yds, 199 TD, 103 INT |
| Rushing | 377 att, 1,648 yds, 12 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 17 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | redraft #8 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | redraft #19 |
| 4 | Denzel Ward | redraft #18 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.