Saquon Barkley
RB, Penn St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #2 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#2).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 87% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 106 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~80%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 110 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 65 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 65.7 |
| Rushing | 1862 att, 8,538 yds, 55 TD |
| Receiving | 362 rec, 2,659 yds, 16 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 41" |
| Shuttle | 4.24 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.38" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 1 | Baker Mayfield | redraft #6 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | redraft #19 |
| 4 | Denzel Ward | redraft #18 |
| 5 | Bradley Chubb | redraft #31 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.