Josh Allen
QB, Wyoming · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #7 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 128 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #10 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wyoming: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 237 lbs: faster than 63% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 134 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 111 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 113.7 |
| Passing | 2729/4259, 31,606 yds, 229 TD, 98 INT |
| Rushing | 919 att, 4,961 yds, 87 TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 20 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 237 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.25" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #10 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 4 | Denzel Ward | redraft #18 |
| 5 | Bradley Chubb | redraft #31 |
| 6 | Quenton Nelson | redraft #5 |
| 8 | Roquan Smith | redraft #3 |
| 9 | Mike McGlinchey | redraft #21 |
| 10 | Josh Rosen | redraft #194 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.