Tyler Zeller
C, UNC · 2012 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #17 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: length. Details below.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 7' 0" tall (+0.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.4 years old on draft night (born 1990-01-17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UNC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 414 games over 8 NBA seasons (~63% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 414 |
| Minutes / game | 17.5 |
| Points / game | 6.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 17.1 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.0 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 247 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 22.4 |
| Born | Washington, IN |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 14 | John Henson | redraft #15 |
| 15 | Maurice Harkless | redraft #13 |
| 16 | Royce White | redraft #56 |
| 18 | Terrence Jones | redraft #17 |
| 19 | Andrew Nicholson | redraft #31 |
| 20 | Evan Fournier | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.