John Henson
PF, UNC · 2012 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #14 (MIL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #9 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.5 years old on draft night (born 1990-12-28).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UNC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 5" at 6' 10" tall (+7.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 445 games over 8 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 445 |
| Minutes / game | 19.7 |
| Points / game | 7.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.3 |
| Assists / game | 1.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.7 |
| VORP | 3.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.5 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 216 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 5" |
| Age on draft night | 21.5 |
| Born | Round Rock, TX |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #9 overall (#3 PF) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 11 | Meyers Leonard | redraft #21 |
| 12 | Jeremy Lamb | redraft #9 |
| 13 | Kendall Marshall | redraft #41 |
| 15 | Maurice Harkless | redraft #13 |
| 16 | Royce White | redraft #56 |
| 17 | Tyler Zeller | redraft #22 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.