Sergey Karasev
SG · 2013 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #19 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: path to the draft, availability. Details below.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 95 games over 3 NBA seasons (~39% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #13 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.7 years old on draft night (born 1993-10-26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 9" at 6' 7" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 95 |
| Minutes / game | 11.7 |
| Points / game | 3.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.5 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.8 |
| VORP | -0.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.4 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 197 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 9" |
| Age on draft night | 19.7 |
| Born | St. Petersburg, Russia |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #13 overall (#4 SG) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 16 | Lucas Nogueira | redraft #26 |
| 17 | Dennis Schröder | redraft #14 |
| 18 | Shane Larkin | redraft #32 |
| 20 | Tony Snell | redraft #18 |
| 21 | Gorgui Dieng | redraft #11 |
| 22 | Mason Plumlee | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.