Lucas Nogueira
C · 2013 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #16 (BOS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: path to the draft, availability. Details below.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Sao Goncalo, Brazil.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 141 games over 4 NBA seasons (~43% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.9 years old on draft night (born 1992-07-26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 6" at 7' 0" tall (+6.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 141 |
| Minutes / game | 12.4 |
| Points / game | 3.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 6.0 |
| VORP | 1.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 2.3 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 220 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 6" |
| Age on draft night | 20.9 |
| Born | Sao Goncalo, Brazil |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#4 C) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 13 | Kelly Olynyk | redraft #6 |
| 14 | Shabazz Muhammad | redraft #29 |
| 15 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | redraft #1 |
| 17 | Dennis Schröder | redraft #14 |
| 18 | Shane Larkin | redraft #32 |
| 19 | Sergey Karasev | redraft #38 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.