Shane Larkin
PG, Miami (FL) · 2013 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #18 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.7 years old on draft night (born 1992-10-02).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Miami (FL).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 5' 10.75" at 6' 0" tall (-1.3 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 256 games over 4 NBA seasons (~78% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 256 |
| Minutes / game | 19.1 |
| Points / game | 5.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.9 |
| Assists / game | 2.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.4 |
| VORP | -0.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.4 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 171 lbs |
| Wingspan | 5' 10.75" |
| Age on draft night | 20.7 |
| Born | Orlando, FL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#5 PG) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 15 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | redraft #1 |
| 16 | Lucas Nogueira | redraft #26 |
| 17 | Dennis Schröder | redraft #14 |
| 19 | Sergey Karasev | redraft #38 |
| 20 | Tony Snell | redraft #18 |
| 21 | Gorgui Dieng | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.