Kelly Olynyk
PF, Gonzaga · 2013 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #13 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: length. Details below.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 9.75" at 7' 0" tall (-2.3 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #18 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#13). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.2 years old on draft night (born 1991-04-19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Gonzaga.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 842 games over 13 NBA seasons (~79% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 13 |
| Games | 842 |
| Minutes / game | 21.8 |
| Points / game | 9.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.0 |
| Assists / game | 2.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 47.1 |
| VORP | 13.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.8 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 234 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 9.75" |
| Age on draft night | 22.2 |
| Born | Kamloops, BC |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #18 overall (#3 PF) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 10 | CJ McCollum | redraft #3 |
| 11 | Michael Carter-Williams | redraft #25 |
| 12 | Steven Adams | redraft #4 |
| 14 | Shabazz Muhammad | redraft #29 |
| 15 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | redraft #1 |
| 16 | Lucas Nogueira | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.