Luke Kennard
SG, Duke · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #12 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: length. Details below.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 5" at 6' 6" tall (-1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.0 years old on draft night (born 1996-06-24).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 540 games over 10 NBA seasons (~66% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 540 |
| Minutes / game | 23.1 |
| Points / game | 9.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.8 |
| Assists / game | 2.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 28.3 |
| VORP | 6.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.0 |
| 2026-27 so far | 1 GP, 11 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 196 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 5" |
| Age on draft night | 21.0 |
| Born | 1996-06-24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#2 SG) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 9 | Dennis Smith Jr. | redraft #37 |
| 10 | Zach Collins | redraft #20 |
| 11 | Malik Monk | redraft #17 |
| 13 | Donovan Mitchell | redraft #2 |
| 14 | Bam Adebayo | redraft #4 |
| 15 | Justin Jackson | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.