Justin Jackson
SF, UNC · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #15 (POR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #26 (#5 at his position); he went #15, 11 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 280 games over 7 NBA seasons (~49% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
22.2 years old on draft night (born 1995-03-28).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UNC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 8" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 7 |
| Games | 280 |
| Minutes / game | 17.5 |
| Points / game | 6.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.3 |
| Assists / game | 1.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 5.3 |
| VORP | -1.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.8 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 200 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 22.2 |
| Born | 1995-03-28 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #26 overall (#5 SF) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 12 | Luke Kennard | redraft #12 |
| 13 | Donovan Mitchell | redraft #2 |
| 14 | Bam Adebayo | redraft #4 |
| 16 | Justin Patton | redraft #47 |
| 17 | D.J. Wilson | redraft #33 |
| 18 | T.J. Leaf | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.