T.J. Leaf
PF, UCLA · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #18 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 146 games over 4 NBA seasons (~45% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.2 years old on draft night (born 1997-04-30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UCLA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 10" tall (+1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 146 |
| Minutes / game | 8.5 |
| Points / game | 3.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.9 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 2.7 |
| VORP | 0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.8 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 222 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 20.2 |
| Born | 1997-04-30 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#4 PF) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 15 | Justin Jackson | redraft #25 |
| 16 | Justin Patton | redraft #47 |
| 17 | D.J. Wilson | redraft #33 |
| 19 | John Collins | redraft #8 |
| 20 | Harry Giles | redraft #31 |
| 21 | Terrance Ferguson | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.