John Collins
PF, Wake Forest · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #19 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: length. Details below.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 10" tall (+1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#19). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.8 years old on draft night (born 1997-09-23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Wake Forest.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 546 games over 10 NBA seasons (~67% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 546 |
| Minutes / game | 28.9 |
| Points / game | 15.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 7.7 |
| Assists / game | 1.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 44.3 |
| VORP | 10.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.5 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 15 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 225 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 19.8 |
| Born | 1997-09-23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#3 PF) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 16 | Justin Patton | redraft #47 |
| 17 | D.J. Wilson | redraft #33 |
| 18 | T.J. Leaf | redraft #34 |
| 20 | Harry Giles | redraft #31 |
| 21 | Terrance Ferguson | redraft #27 |
| 22 | Jarrett Allen | redraft #3 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.