Jarrett Allen
C, Texas · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #22 (BRK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #20 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#22). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.2 years old on draft night (born 1998-04-21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Texas.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 5" at 6' 10" tall (+7.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 628 games over 10 NBA seasons (~77% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 628 |
| Minutes / game | 28.1 |
| Points / game | 13.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 9.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 73.7 |
| VORP | 19.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 2.4 |
| 2026-27 so far | 2 GP, 17.5 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 233 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 5" |
| Age on draft night | 19.2 |
| Born | 1998-04-21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #20 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 19 | John Collins | redraft #8 |
| 20 | Harry Giles | redraft #31 |
| 21 | Terrance Ferguson | redraft #27 |
| 23 | OG Anunoby | redraft #10 |
| 24 | Tyler Lydon | redraft #51 |
| 25 | Anžejs Pasečņiks | redraft #46 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.