Donovan Mitchell
SG, Louisville · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #13 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#13). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.8 years old on draft night (born 1996-09-07).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Louisville.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 10" at 6' 3" tall (+7.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 613 games over 10 NBA seasons (~75% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 613 |
| Minutes / game | 33.8 |
| Points / game | 25.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.3 |
| Assists / game | 4.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 60.7 |
| VORP | 29.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 3.6 |
| 2026-27 so far | 2 GP, 27 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 210 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 10" |
| Age on draft night | 20.8 |
| Born | 1996-09-07 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#3 SG) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 10 | Zach Collins | redraft #20 |
| 11 | Malik Monk | redraft #17 |
| 12 | Luke Kennard | redraft #12 |
| 14 | Bam Adebayo | redraft #4 |
| 15 | Justin Jackson | redraft #25 |
| 16 | Justin Patton | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.