Zach Collins
C, Gonzaga · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (SAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 392 games over 9 NBA seasons (~53% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #9 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.6 years old on draft night (born 1997-11-19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Gonzaga.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 1" at 7' 0" tall (+1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 392 |
| Minutes / game | 18.8 |
| Points / game | 8.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.8 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 12.5 |
| VORP | 1.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
| 2026-27 so far | 2 GP, 1 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 233 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 1" |
| Age on draft night | 19.6 |
| Born | 1997-11-19 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #9 overall (#1 C) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 7 | Lauri Markkanen | redraft #9 |
| 8 | Frank Ntilikina | redraft #48 |
| 9 | Dennis Smith Jr. | redraft #37 |
| 11 | Malik Monk | redraft #17 |
| 12 | Luke Kennard | redraft #12 |
| 13 | Donovan Mitchell | redraft #2 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.