Lawrence Roberts
PF, Mississippi State · 2005 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #55 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #63 (#19 at his position), close to where he went (#55).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.7 years old on draft night (born 1982-10-21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Mississippi State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 87 games over 2 NBA seasons (~53% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 87 |
| Minutes / game | 13.2 |
| Points / game | 3.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.6 |
| Assists / game | 0.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 2.5 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.9 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 240 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.7 |
| Born | Houston, TX |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #63 overall (#19 PF) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 52 | Axel Hervelle | redraft #59 |
| 53 | Orien Greene | redraft #52 |
| 54 | Dijon Thompson | redraft #46 |
| 56 | Amir Johnson | redraft #9 |
| 57 | Marcin Gortat | redraft #6 |
| 58 | Uroš Slokar | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.