Hilton Armstrong
C, UConn · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #12 (NOK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #28 (#2 at his position); he went #12, 16 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.6 years old on draft night (born 1984-11-23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UConn.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 292 games over 6 NBA seasons (~59% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 292 |
| Minutes / game | 11.6 |
| Points / game | 3.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.6 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 3.9 |
| VORP | -1.8 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.1 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 240 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.6 |
| Born | Peekskill, NY |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #28 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 9 | Patrick O'Bryant | redraft #35 |
| 10 | Mouhamed Sene | redraft #38 |
| 11 | JJ Redick | redraft #6 |
| 13 | Thabo Sefolosha | redraft #8 |
| 14 | Ronnie Brewer | redraft #10 |
| 15 | Cedric Simmons | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.