Cedric Simmons
PF, NC State · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #15 (NOK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 75 games over 3 NBA seasons (~30% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.5 years old on draft night (born 1986-01-03).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at NC State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 75 |
| Minutes / game | 9.4 |
| Points / game | 2.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.9 |
| Assists / game | 0.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.1 |
| VORP | -0.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.0 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 223 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.5 |
| Born | Shallotte, NC |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#5 PF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 12 | Hilton Armstrong | redraft #28 |
| 13 | Thabo Sefolosha | redraft #8 |
| 14 | Ronnie Brewer | redraft #10 |
| 16 | Rodney Carney | redraft #24 |
| 17 | Shawne Williams | redraft #25 |
| 18 | Oleksiy Pecherov | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.