NBA Draft Steals of 2021-2025: Cam Spencer, Toumani Camara and Why Teams Let Them Slide
Cam Spencer went 53rd and now ranks 4th in our live 2024 NBA redraft. Here are the biggest steals of 2021-2025 and what the draft data says about why teams passed.
The NBA second round is supposed to be a lottery ticket. Most of those picks bounce between the G League and the end of the bench. But every class has a few who outplay half the first round, and our live redrafts catch them. Each board re-ranks a class by career Win Shares and VORP, plus an estimated credit for the 2026-27 season so far, so the order moves a little every night.
We pulled the top steal from each of the last five classes, then checked each player page's "why he was overlooked" panel. The surprise: in most cases the data didn't flag them before the draft. The whole league missed together.
The steals board
| Class | Player | Pick | Redraft rank | Spots gained | Career WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cam Spencer | 53 | 4 | +49 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | Toumani Camara | 52 | 6 | +46 | 12.6 |
| 2023 | Trayce Jackson-Davis | 57 | 8 | +49 | 9.8 |
| 2021 | Aaron Wiggins | 55 | 14 | +41 | 15.8 |
| 2024 | Ajay Mitchell | 38 | 6 | +32 | 6.8 |
| 2025 | Maxime Raynaud | 42 | 10 | +32 | 3.6 |
| 2021 | Ayo Dosunmu | 38 | 10 | +28 | 18.2 |
| 2022 | Jaylin Williams | 34 | 9 | +25 | 12.0 |
Win Shares here include our in-season estimate for 2026-27, which is built from box-score efficiency. Treat the current-season slice as an estimate, not an official number.
The ones the rankings saw coming
Three of these players did show up as red flags for the teams that passed, and the signal was the same each time: they fell well past where ESPN's pre-draft board had them.
Cam Spencer is the cleanest example. ESPN ranked the UConn guard 42nd overall, and he lasted until pick 53, an 11-spot slide. Since 2000, players who slid past their ranking like that beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time, against 50% for a typical pick. Two seasons in, he ranks fourth in the 2024 redraft with 6.4 Win Shares and 2.0 VORP, and he's averaging 8.8 points through four games this season. The one knock in his file is availability: 103 games over three seasons. The 2024 class is still young, so this verdict can move.
Trayce Jackson-Davis slid even further. ESPN had the Indiana big at 38, and he went 57th, 19 spots past his ranking. He now sits eighth in the 2023 redraft with 9.8 Win Shares and 2.3 VORP.
Maxime Raynaud is the newest member of the club. ESPN ranked the Stanford center 26th, and he waited until pick 42, a 16-spot fall. His player page flags a second green signal: he played 74 games as a rookie, about 90% of a full schedule. One season in, he's 10th in the 2025 redraft with 3.6 Win Shares. He hasn't logged a game yet this season, so his number will need fresh minutes to hold.
The ones nobody saw
The other five are a humbling read for anyone who trusts mock drafts. For each of them, the player page says the same thing: nothing in the pre-draft data, from age to school to position, flagged a steal. The gap opened on the court.
Toumani Camara is the poster child. ESPN ranked the Dayton forward 52nd. He went 52nd. The market priced him exactly where its own board said, and it was wrong by 46 spots. He has 12.6 Win Shares, he's played 235 games over four seasons, and he's off to a 16.3-point start through three games this year.
Jaylin Williams went 34th after ESPN ranked him 35th. He was 20 years old on draft night, younger than anyone else in this group, and he's built 12.0 Win Shares and 3.4 VORP, the best VORP on this board. He's ninth in the 2022 redraft.
Ayo Dosunmu and Aaron Wiggins tell the same story from the 2021 class. Dosunmu was ranked 35th and went 38th. Wiggins was ranked 48th and went 55th. Six seasons in, Dosunmu has 18.2 Win Shares over 354 games, and Wiggins has 15.8 over 346 and is scoring 15.8 points a game so far this season. Both rank in the top 15 of the 2021 redraft.
Ajay Mitchell rounds it out. The UC Santa Barbara guard was ranked 41st and went 38th, so if anything teams took him a touch early. He's sixth in the 2024 redraft with 6.8 Win Shares, and he's averaging 16.0 points through four games.
What it means for the 2026 class
Two lessons carry over. First, a big slide past the consensus ranking is a real signal: those players beat their slot more than two-thirds of the time. Second, most steals aren't predictable from the draft-night profile at all. They come from players who earn minutes and stay on the floor.
That's worth remembering while the live 2026 NBA redraft is still mostly draft order. Through games of Oct. 27, performance carries only about 24% of the weight, and second-rounders like Trevon Brazile (pick 35, now 23rd) and Bryce Hopkins (pick 49, now 38th) are the early climbers. A handful of games proves nothing yet. But if the last five classes are any guide, the next steal is whoever keeps earning minutes.
The 2026 NBA redraft re-sorts every morning with the latest games.