2026 NFL Rookie of the Year Race: OROY and DROY at Midseason
Arvell Reese leads DROY at +100 with 80 tackles and 4.5 sacks. Fernando Mendoza is the +300 OROY favorite before his first NFL start.
The two rookie awards are running on opposite logic. On defense, the favorite is the player with the best numbers: Arvell Reese is +100 for Defensive Rookie of the Year and No. 1 on our live 2026 NFL redraft. On offense, the favorite has thrown eight regular-season passes: Fernando Mendoza jumped from +2000 to +300 at DraftKings after the Raiders traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday, per Covers.
Rookie stats run through Thursday's Commanders-Giants game, from our 2026 NFL rookie leaders page (nflverse data). Odds are DraftKings prices from Nov. 11.
| Award | Favorite | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| DROY | Arvell Reese | +100 |
| DROY | David Bailey | +250 |
| OROY | Fernando Mendoza | +300 |
| OROY | Denzel Boston | +500 |
DROY: Arvell Reese has earned the top spot
Arvell Reese, LB, Giants (pick 5) 80 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 8 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PD, 1 FF in 9 games 99.5% of defensive snaps · Rookie Impact Score 97.7 (No. 1 in the class)
Reese never leaves the field, and lately he's more than a tackler. In the Week 9 win at Philadelphia he had 12 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble, and Giants.com notes that at 21 years and 70 days he became the youngest player in NFL history with three sacks in a game. That won him NFC Defensive Player of the Week.
Thursday was quieter: 13 tackles (4 solo), no sacks, and a 24-21 loss on Jayden Daniels' late touchdown to Stefon Diggs. That shouldn't move his price. The case is nine games of every-down work plus enough sacks to give voters a headline.
David Bailey's case is the per-snap pass rush
David Bailey, OLB, Jets (pick 2) 43 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 10 TFL, 5 FF in 8 games 72.2% of snaps · No. 2 on the live redraft
Bailey has three more sacks than Reese while playing about three-quarters of the snaps. FOX Sports has his 31 pressures leading all rookies and his five forced fumbles tied for the NFL lead. The New York Post makes the voter-history argument for him: sacks and forced fumbles tend to win this award.
The problem is the trend line. Bailey had five sacks through his first five games, per VegasInsider, so 2.5 in the three since. Before Thursday, all 4.5 of Reese's sacks had come in his previous five games. Our view: Reese is the right favorite, but +250 on Bailey is a fair price for the player most likely to post a three-sack Sunday.
The linebackers chasing them
Three more linebackers are winning on volume:
- Sonny Styles, WAS (pick 7): 78 tackles, 1 INT, 94.2% snaps, No. 3 on the redraft. He matched Reese with 13 tackles on Thursday. +800.
- Jacob Rodriguez, MIA (pick 43): 78 tackles in 8 games on 99.8% of snaps. His Rookie Impact Score of 96.3 is second only to Reese, and he has climbed 38 spots to No. 5 on the redraft. +800.
- Anthony Hill, TEN (pick 60): 82 tackles, the most of any rookie, on 99.5% of snaps. Up 51 spots to No. 9.
None has more than one sack. In a race this top-heavy, that's the gap.
OROY: Mendoza is favored on opportunity
Mendoza's one appearance was a mop-up drive in Week 5: 6 of 8 for 48 yards. He gets his first start Sunday against Seattle, the reigning champion, and the Raiders have eight games left. The price is a bet on volume: eight starts can produce volume no receiver matches in that span, and a quarterback won this award in three of the last six seasons (Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels).
On our board, Mendoza sits No. 7, six spots below his draft slot, and that ranking is still mostly the No. 1 pick prior.
Denzel Boston is the actual production leader
Denzel Boston, WR, Browns (pick 39) 32 catches, 507 yards, 3 TD in 9 games · 90.5% of snaps Rookie Impact Score 88.4, the highest of any offensive rookie
Boston leads all rookies in receiving yards, ties for the lead in scrimmage touchdowns and averages 15.8 yards per catch. In Week 9 he caught 6 of 7 targets for 98 yards, including a 60-yarder that NBC Sports counted as his league-leading fourth catch of 40-plus yards. The live redraft has him at No. 12, up 27 spots.
The rest of the offensive field:
- Carnell Tate, TEN (pick 4): 34 catches, 413 yards in 7 games, about 59 a game, slightly ahead of Boston's 56. The Titans ruled him out for Week 10 with a shoulder injury.
- KC Concepcion, CLE (pick 24): 37 catches, 437 yards, 1 TD. He shares the rookie lead in catches with Makai Lemon.
- Jonah Coleman, DEN (pick 108): 191 rushing yards and 3 TD on 47 carries, plus 13 catches for 128. He played 58 snaps to J.K. Dobbins' 11 in Week 9, per Broncos Wire.
Boston missed practice Thursday with a toe injury, so his status for Houston is open. If he sits too, Mendoza's first start gets the whole spotlight.
Our view: today the award belongs to Boston. Mendoza at +300 is the bet; Boston at +500 is the better player so far.
What past classes say about the winner
The award usually finds a cornerstone, not always the best player in the class. On our live past redrafts:
- DROY winners from 2019 to 2025 rank inside the top 7 of their class six times out of seven. Carson Schwesinger, 2025's winner from pick 33, sits No. 3 on the 2025 board. Chase Young (2020) is the miss.
- OROY winners are less reliable. Stroud is No. 5 on the 2023 board, four spots behind Jahmyr Gibbs, and Garrett Wilson (2022) is outside that class's top 10.
For dynasty: Reese and Bailey hold value no matter who wins. On offense, don't pay for a trophy. Boston, a second-round pick already No. 12 on the redraft, is a better hold than an award favorite with no starts.
What to watch in Week 10
Mendoza against Seattle on Sunday is the swing game for OROY. Boston's toe and Tate's shoulder decide whether the receivers can answer. On defense, Bailey and the Jets face Buffalo. The live board refreshes after Sunday's games.
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