Nick Hardwick
C, Purdue · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #66 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #135 (#4 at his position); he went #66, 69 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Purdue: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.20 40-yard dash at 295 lbs: faster than 53% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 136 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2014 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 136 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 67 |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 295 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.20 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.72 s |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #135 overall (#4 C) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 63 | Marquise Hill | redraft #187 |
| 64 | Darnell Dockett | redraft #11 |
| 65 | Nate Kaeding | redraft #83 |
| 67 | Stuart Schweigert | redraft #91 |
| 68 | Ben Hartsock | redraft #173 |
| 69 | Gilbert Gardner | redraft #121 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.