Nate Kaeding
K, Iowa · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #65 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
K (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #94 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#65).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.95 40-yard dash at 187 lbs: faster than 26% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 115 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2012 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 115 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Defense | 15 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 187 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.95 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #94 overall (#1 K) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 62 | Keary Colbert | redraft #95 |
| 63 | Marquise Hill | redraft #187 |
| 64 | Darnell Dockett | redraft #11 |
| 66 | Nick Hardwick | redraft #13 |
| 67 | Stuart Schweigert | redraft #91 |
| 68 | Ben Hartsock | redraft #173 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.