Natrell Jamerson
S, Wisconsin · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #164 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2020 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #167 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#164).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 82% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 21 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #167 overall (#14 S) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 161 | Jermaine Carter Jr. | redraft #114 |
| 162 | Jordan Lasley | redraft #242 |
| 163 | Tim Settle | redraft #89 |
| 165 | Jaylen Samuels | redraft #158 |
| 166 | Wyatt Teller | redraft #38 |
| 167 | Daniel Carlson | redraft #81 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.