Jaylen Samuels
TE, North Carolina St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #165 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #171 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#165).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 90% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~65 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2021 (~69%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.0 |
| Passing | 4/5, 35 yds, undefined TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 136 att, 468 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 85 rec, 564 yds, 4 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.38" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #171 overall (#1 TE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 162 | Jordan Lasley | redraft #242 |
| 163 | Tim Settle | redraft #89 |
| 164 | Natrell Jamerson | redraft #220 |
| 166 | Wyatt Teller | redraft #38 |
| 167 | Daniel Carlson | redraft #81 |
| 168 | Jamarco Jones | redraft #159 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.