Daniel Carlson
K, Auburn · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #167 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
K (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 128 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #158 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#167). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 135 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 23.1 |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 213 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #158 overall (#1 K) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 164 | Natrell Jamerson | redraft #220 |
| 165 | Jaylen Samuels | redraft #158 |
| 166 | Wyatt Teller | redraft #38 |
| 168 | Jamarco Jones | redraft #159 |
| 169 | Jordan Wilkins | redraft #149 |
| 170 | Darius Phillips | redraft #157 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.