Marshawn Lynch
RB, California · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #12 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 149 of ~208 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2019 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 149 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 74 |
| Passing | 1/3, 8 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 2453 att, 10,413 yds, 85 TD |
| Receiving | 287 rec, 2,214 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.05 s |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 9 | Ted Ginn Jr. | redraft #23 |
| 10 | Amobi Okoye | redraft #60 |
| 11 | Patrick Willis | redraft #2 |
| 13 | Adam Carriker | redraft #64 |
| 14 | Darrelle Revis | redraft #3 |
| 15 | Lawrence Timmons | redraft #12 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.