Patrick Willis
LB, Mississippi · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #11 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 112 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2014 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #12 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 90% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 112 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 7 |
| First-team All-Pro | 5 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 93 |
| Defense | 733 tackles, 20.5 sacks, 8 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 7.23 s |
| Shuttle | 4.46 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #12 overall (#1 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 8 | Jamaal Anderson | redraft #69 |
| 9 | Ted Ginn Jr. | redraft #23 |
| 10 | Amobi Okoye | redraft #60 |
| 12 | Marshawn Lynch | redraft #10 |
| 13 | Adam Carriker | redraft #64 |
| 14 | Darrelle Revis | redraft #3 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.