Lawrence Timmons
LB, Florida St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #15 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 172 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2017 (~98%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #24 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 234 lbs: faster than 46% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 172 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 72 |
| Defense | 737 tackles, 35.5 sacks, 12 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 234 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 6.89 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #24 overall (#1 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 12 | Marshawn Lynch | redraft #10 |
| 13 | Adam Carriker | redraft #64 |
| 14 | Darrelle Revis | redraft #3 |
| 16 | Justin Harrell | redraft #174 |
| 17 | Jarvis Moss | redraft #162 |
| 18 | Leon Hall | redraft #24 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.