Kelvin Sheppard
LB, LSU · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #68 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #64 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#68).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 34% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 107 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 107 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| Defense | 281 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.70 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #64 overall (#2 LB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 65 | Terrell McClain | redraft #84 |
| 66 | Dontay Moch | redraft #215 |
| 67 | Nate Irving | redraft #112 |
| 69 | Rob Housler | redraft #111 |
| 70 | Justin Houston | redraft #13 |
| 71 | DeMarco Murray | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.