DeMarco Murray
RB, Oklahoma · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #71 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 99 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2017 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #90 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#71). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 95% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 99 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 60 |
| Passing | 1/2, 10 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1604 att, 7,174 yds, 49 TD |
| Receiving | 307 rec, 2,165 yds, 6 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.28 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #90 overall (#8 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 68 | Kelvin Sheppard | redraft #63 |
| 69 | Rob Housler | redraft #111 |
| 70 | Justin Houston | redraft #13 |
| 72 | Martez Wilson | redraft #176 |
| 73 | Stevan Ridley | redraft #61 |
| 74 | Ryan Mallett | redraft #163 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.