Justin Houston
LB, Georgia · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #70 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #46 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#70). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 270 lbs: faster than 62% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 170 of ~211 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2023 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 170 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 74 |
| Defense | 409 tackles, 112 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 270 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 30 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.4" / 10.7" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #46 overall (#12 LB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 67 | Nate Irving | redraft #112 |
| 68 | Kelvin Sheppard | redraft #63 |
| 69 | Rob Housler | redraft #111 |
| 71 | DeMarco Murray | redraft #23 |
| 72 | Martez Wilson | redraft #176 |
| 73 | Stevan Ridley | redraft #61 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.