Ryan Mallett
QB, Arkansas · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2017 (~19%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #54 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#74).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.37 40-yard dash at 253 lbs: faster than 0% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 21 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Passing | 190/345, 1,835 yds, 9 TD, 10 INT |
| Rushing | 28 att, -5 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 253 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.37 s |
| Vertical | 24" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| Arm / hand | 34.29" / 10.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #54 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 71 | DeMarco Murray | redraft #23 |
| 72 | Martez Wilson | redraft #176 |
| 73 | Stevan Ridley | redraft #61 |
| 75 | John Moffitt | redraft #129 |
| 76 | Will Rackley | redraft #119 |
| 77 | Jurrell Casey | redraft #14 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.