Jurrell Casey
DT, USC · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #77 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 142 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2020 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #61 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#77). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.04 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 28% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 142 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 72 |
| Defense | 332 tackles, 51 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.04 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.51 s |
| Shuttle | 4.78 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 8.699" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #61 overall (#7 DT) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 74 | Ryan Mallett | redraft #163 |
| 75 | John Moffitt | redraft #129 |
| 76 | Will Rackley | redraft #119 |
| 78 | Austin Pettis | redraft #117 |
| 79 | Leonard Hankerson | redraft #97 |
| 80 | Chris Culliver | redraft #95 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.