Austin Pettis
WR, Boise St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #78 (STL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #111 (#14 at his position); he went #78, 33 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 209 lbs: faster than 16% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 47 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 47 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -6 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 107 rec, 1,034 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 209 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.68 s |
| Shuttle | 3.88 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #111 overall (#14 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 75 | John Moffitt | redraft #129 |
| 76 | Will Rackley | redraft #119 |
| 77 | Jurrell Casey | redraft #14 |
| 79 | Leonard Hankerson | redraft #97 |
| 80 | Chris Culliver | redraft #95 |
| 81 | DeMarcus Van Dyke | redraft #173 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.