Dontay Moch
LB, Nevada · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #66 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #108 (#5 at his position); he went #66, 42 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nevada: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 248 lbs: faster than 99% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 248 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 42" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #108 overall (#5 LB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 63 | Marcus Gilbert | redraft #40 |
| 64 | Randall Cobb | redraft #18 |
| 65 | Terrell McClain | redraft #84 |
| 67 | Nate Irving | redraft #112 |
| 68 | Kelvin Sheppard | redraft #63 |
| 69 | Rob Housler | redraft #111 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.