John Theus
T, Georgia · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #145 (SF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #351 (#25 at his position); he went #145, 206 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2016 (~25%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.22 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 48% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.22 s |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.78 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.88" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #351 overall (#25 T) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 142 | Ronald Blair | redraft #141 |
| 143 | DeAndre Washington | redraft #111 |
| 144 | Connor McGovern | redraft #61 |
| 146 | Matt Judon | redraft #14 |
| 147 | Quinton Jefferson | redraft #63 |
| 148 | Caleb Benenoch | redraft #109 |
More offensive line busts Steals & busts
| 2020 | Isaiah Wilson #29 → #243 | -188 |
| 2004 | Jacob Rogers #52 → #215 | -135 |
| 2011 | Derek Sherrod #32 → #171 | -115 |
| 2016 | Joshua Garnett #28 → #156 | -102 |
| 2003 | Bruce Nelson #50 → #178 | -99 |
Picks at his position who fell furthest below their slot, 2000–2023 classes, current redraft rank.
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.