Matt Judon
DE, Grand Valley St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #146 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 145 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~88%). Plus 1 game so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #139 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#146). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Grand Valley St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 275 lbs: faster than 80% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 146 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 63 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 63.1 |
| Defense | 286 tackles, 72 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 275 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Bench press | 30 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.67 s |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #139 overall (#13 DE) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 143 | DeAndre Washington | redraft #111 |
| 144 | Connor McGovern | redraft #61 |
| 145 | John Theus | redraft #209 |
| 147 | Quinton Jefferson | redraft #63 |
| 148 | Caleb Benenoch | redraft #109 |
| 149 | Paul Perkins | redraft #155 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.