Ronald Blair
DE, Appalachian St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #142 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #96 overall (#16 at his position), but he lasted until pick #142: teams let him slide 46 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Appalachian St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.15 40-yard dash at 284 lbs: faster than 13% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 55 of ~97 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2021 (~57%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.0 |
| Defense | 71 tackles, 14.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 284 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.15 s |
| Bench press | 32 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.25" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #96 overall (#16 DE) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 139 | Cardale Jones | redraft #232 |
| 140 | Tajae Sharpe | redraft #110 |
| 141 | Zack Sanchez | redraft #208 |
| 143 | DeAndre Washington | redraft #111 |
| 144 | Connor McGovern | redraft #61 |
| 145 | John Theus | redraft #209 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.